Executive summary

This ex ante impact assessment measures the potential economic impact of and returns to investment in a proposed collaborative ILRI–ICRISAT–NARS (International Livestock Research Institute–International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics–national agricultural research systems) research project on genetic improvement of dual-purpose (i.e. grain and fodder) sorghum and pearl millet in India. The approach taken links three methodologies to measure how much impact, where, and how to value it.  A feed simulation model is used to measure the potential productivity gains from more, higher-quality crop residues in terms of meat and milk output. Primary survey data and geographic information systems (GIS) analyses of secondary data are used to assess where these gains are likely to be made. An economic surplus model that links the results of the GIS analysis with the output from the feed model is used to value the potential benefits versus the costs of the research.

Sorghum and millet crop residues play a major role in meeting the feed requirements of cattle and buffalo in the smallholder mixed crop–livestock farming systems in India’s semi-arid tropics. These cattle and buffalo provide milk and meat and act as a bank account for many of India’s 630 million rural dwellers, three-quarters of who are estimated to own livestock. Their manure is used to fertilise crops and despite an increasing use of tractors, cattle and buffalo continue to pull ploughs for most small farmers, and thus play a crucial role in food production for the rural poor. While several constraints to increasing livestock productivity in this region exist, the major ones are insufficient quantity and poor quality of livestock feed. This genetic research is expected to result in more, and better quality (more digestible) feed for ruminants that will in turn convert the improved diet into more milk, meat, manure and draft power.

Currently cereal and fodder yields are relatively low. With the genetic diversity available after 20 years of breeding for increased grain yields, there is considerable opportunity for genetically increasing stover and grain biomass simultaneously. The evidence of genetically controlled differences in changes of digestible components during maturation, and the weak correlation between yield and digestibility already obtained for forage grasses imply that improving quality should be possible without sacrificing biomass yield.

One hundred and four districts of India were identified (using GIS) as the recommendation domain (RD) or zone targeted for likely adoption of such improved dual-purpose genotypes. This is because in these districts sorghum and pearl millet residues are important sources of animal feed, contributing up to one-half of the total available roughage. Because farmers are already planting dual-purpose varieties throughout the RD and new varieties are not expected to increase input costs, they represent an attractive technology for resource-poor smallholders. The RD covers 33% of India’s land area, supporting 221 million people. Twenty-five per cent of the bovine and 35% of the country’s small ruminant population are found here. These districts also account for 16 million tonnes, or roughly 30%, of India’s annual milk production.

Breeders and animal nutritionists estimate that this research could potentially lead to increases in digestibility of sorghum and millet residues ranging from 1% to 15%. A feed simulation model was used to estimate potential increases in milk yield, animal growth and draft capacity with such improvements in feed quality/digestibility. The results suggest that a 1% increase in digestibility would result in increases in milk, meat and draft power outputs (averaged across surveyed districts) ranging from 6% to 8%.

An economic surplus model was used to value such impacts. The net present value of the research on genetic enhancement of feed quality of sorghum and millet crop residues was estimated to range from US$ 42 to 208 million as cautious baseline assumptions regarding potential adoption rates were relaxed. Predicted rates of return to the research investment varied from 28% to 43% with corresponding benefit:cost ratios of 15–69:1.   

The estimated returns to this research are attractive, even when the scope of the benefits is limited to meat and milk production in buffalo and cattle in India. If we were to include estimates of the potential benefits of improved dual-purpose sorghum and millet varieties to farmers in the semi-arid zones of sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, along with possible increases in crop outputs associated with more manure and traction, it is likely that these returns would be considerably higher.