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The British Government’s
Department for International Development (DFID) is considering new
initiatives to support livestock research. These must be underpinned
by a better understanding of how livestock contribute to the
livelihoods of poor people and by identification of significant
groups of poor livestock keepers that the initiatives may target.
This study has produced a set of maps and tables that locate
significant populations of poor livestock keepers and has broadly
assessed how poor livestock keeping populations are likely to change
over the next 3–5 decades. The outputs of the study are based on
innovative analyses using new global data sets:
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Mapping a
global livestock production system classification, using definitions
based on agroclimatology and human population density.
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Mapping
human population growth scenarios to 2050 for sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)
, Central and South America (CSA) and Asia.
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Development of climate
surfaces for Africa to 2050 as predicted from the downscaling of
results from coarse-resolution global climate change models.
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Mapping the livestock system classification for Africa to 2050
as driven by predicted changes in human population and climate.
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Mapping district- and province-level poverty data for Kenya, Tanzania
and Uganda as an example of high-resolution poverty data for more
effective targeting of development assistance.
Major conclusions of
the analyses include the following:
| 1. |
Numbers of poor (and
numbers of poor livestock keepers, as far as this analysis can be
taken) are greatest in South Asia (SA), particularly in the mixed
irrigated and rainfed agricultural production systems of the region
and in SSA, particularly in the mixed rainfed systems. Because
relatively large numbers of scientists in SA are working on
livestock issues, it appears that SSA affords more general scope for
livestock-related research and development interventions for the
poor. |
| 2. |
Population growth and
climate change will produce substantial changes in livestock
production systems over the next 3–5 decades. There are indications
that the magnitude of these systems changes and the consequent need
for adaptation and mitigation work, will be particularly large in
SSA. |
| 3.
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Poverty and
household survey data for East Africa in general, and Kenya in
particular, indicate that many poor households keep cattle and have
access to land for grazing them. Thus, these results show that large
livestock are not solely the prerogative of richer households. The
results further indicate that the poorest people in East Africa with
significant livestock populations live in dry pastoral areas.
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| 4. |
Considerably more work is
required to better inform donors and the research and development
community of where hotspots of change are located, who is likely to
be affected and how. More collaborative assembling of global data
sets is indicated, together with high-resolution poverty mapping
based on small-area estimation techniques, collation of
geo-referenced household surveys and better understanding of
poverty–resource degradation links. |
| 5. |
Poverty mapping
information is key to any convincing framework for livestock-related
research and development priority setting. A consensus on
appropriate criteria is needed, together with an action plan to fund
and carry out the collection and maintenance of crucial baseline
data. |
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