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Map 1. Human population density, 2000
Map 2. Human population density, 2050

Maps 1 and 2 are based on the following regional population density datasets: 
Asia Population Database 1996 (Deichmann, 1996b); the third version of the Africa Population Database 1996 (Deichmann, 1996a); and the Latin America and Caribbean Population Database 2000 (Hyman et al., 2000). The data come from national population censuses (1990s), that were compiled for more than 5,500 administrative units for Asia, 4,700 administrative units for Africa, and over 10,000 administrative units and 1,300 populated places for Central and South America. Since population census dates have not been synchronised for many countries, population estimates had to be standardised to a common base year using published province- or district-specific intercensal growth rates. These average growth rates, typically for the decade between 1980 and 1990, were then used to project the data to 2050. The rates for 1980–90 rather than those for earlier decades were used because they best represent the reduced migration into unsettled rural areas expected in the future due to continued high rural–urban migration (Foote et al., 1993). The resulting total national population figures were checked against the regularly published population estimates produced by the Population Division of the United Nations (UN, 1997, medium variant). In cases where the estimate was considerably different from the UN estimate, growth rates were adjusted to match the estimated UN population for each country.
     Population within each administrative unit was redistributed by Deichmann using a smoothing technique that redistributed population counts among grid cells within administrative units by ‘attracting’ population towards high-count areas like urban centres or road infrastructure.
     In 2000, 28% of the developing world’s 4.7 billion people were located in East Asia (EA, predominantly China), 28% in South Asia (SA), 11% in South-East Asia (SEA), 11% in Central and South America (CSA), 13% in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), 8% in West Asia–North Africa (WANA), and 1% in the Newly Independent States (NIS) (Table 3a). 
     Of China’s 1.3 billion habitants 74% operate within only two livestock production systems—mixed irrigated temperate (50%), and mixed rainfed temperate (24%). Forty percent of SA’s population (over half a billion people) are located within the mixed irrigated arid/semi-arid system. By contrast, Africa’s population is much more reliant on rainfed agriculture, with 70% (438 million people) falling within rainfed systems. By 2050, the developing world’s population is projected to grow to 7.6 billion, with 20% in EA, 29% in SA, 10% in SEA, 10% in CSA, 20% in SSA, 9% in WANA and 1% in NIS¹ (Table 3b). Thus, in terms of proportion of global population, EA is predicted to shrink, but SA and SSA will increase. That one-fifth of the world’s population will reside in SSA and just under one-third in SA by 2050 is sobering.