Dynamique de la chaîne de valeur du zébu à Madagascar: une analyse intégrée des contraintes et des opportunités

Zebu production is both an economic and cultural cornerstone of Madagascar. However, national herd growth is failing to keep pace with rapid population growth, raising concerns that beef could become increasingly unaffordable for most consumers. This study applies a holistic value chain and systems dynamics approach to examine the interactions, governance structures and production constraints shaping the sector. Using participatory modelling, key informant interviews and causal loop analysis, it identifies the main drivers limiting sector performance. The findings reveal a complex value chain characterized by numerous intermediaries and significant production bottlenecks. Cattle theft, reinforced by weak governance and climate-related pressures in major production areas, emerges as a critical constraint, discouraging herd expansion. The study concludes that tackling cattle theft, alongside investments in climate-resilient feed resources, genetic improvement, access to finance and value chain professionalization, could substantially increase livestock supply, strengthen resilience and support the sustainable transformation of Madagascar's zebu sector.