Low-emission pathways for sheep and goat systems

This study applied the FAO Global Livestock Environmental Assessment Model-interactive (GLEAM-i), a life-cycle approach that quantifies emissions to the farm gate, to assess mitigation options for sheep and goats in China, Indonesia and Thailand - countries with contrasting income levels, production systems and institutional capacities. A 2020 baseline was projected to 2030 and 2040 under three development pathways: Business-as-Usual (BAU); a Productivity Package (PP) combining improved feed quality, animal health, productivity and manure management; and the Productivity Package plus Herd Stabilization (PP+HS), which maintains livestock numbers while raising productivity so that the same or more output is produced from the same or fewer animals, thereby reducing absolute emissions. These pathways were framed as broadly consistent with warming outcomes above 2 °C, between 1.8 and 2 °C, and around 1.5 °C, respectively. Across the three countries and both species (sheep and goats), the PP reduced emission intensity by 20–23% relative to BAU in 2030 and 2040, while maintaining or increasing protein output. When productivity improvements were combined with herd stabilization (PP+HS), pooled absolute GHG emissions fell by up to 13% relative to BAU, while protein supply increased up to 15%.