Refining a global model’s parameters of livestock productivity: Insights from expert consultations in Africa and Asia

This report presents the process and outcomes of a multi-country expert review of intrinsic productivity growth
rates (IPRs) used in the CGIAR’s IMPACT model. Led by the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), the
exercise engaged 116 experts across nine countries in Africa and Asia to examine historical data and validate the
model’s projections of livestock production and productivity. Experts identified significant data gaps and
highlighted instances where projected yields were unrealistic – often too high for cattle, pigs, and poultry – but
they also confirmed that several parameters aligned well with observed or expected trends. In many countries,
projections for dairy, small ruminants, and some poultry systems were considered accurate and reflective of
ongoing intensification and technology adoption. The consultations emphasized the need for disaggregated
production system data and enriched contextual narratives for model improvement. Findings will inform updated
IPRs and strengthen IMPACT’s capacity to support foresight and policy analysis for livestock sector development.